[NOTE: The Manhattan Institute, the right wing think tank that threw
Giuliani the party described below, was founded by CIA director
William Casey and funded by Chase Bank and pharmaceutical companies
connected to eugenics. It has many direct links to Bush, Enron and the
war in Iraq.]

http://www.observer.com/20060501/20060501_Jason_Horowitz_pageone_newsstory1.asp

NY Observer 4/26/06
Can Rudy Pass
As Republican?
Hillary Helps

By Jason Horowitz

Freshly returned from the midterm campaign trail, a smiling Rudy
Giuliani was welcomed into the friendly confines of Cipriani's on the
evening of April 25. As waiters in white coats scurried about the main
dining room, Mr. Giuliani made an entrance worthy of a Presidential
contender.

"I've spent a lot of time down in the South," he told The Observer as
he walked in with his wife Judith on his arm. "I just got back from
New Orleans. It was devastating, but I'm back in New York. I love New
York. I'm from New York."

The black-tie affair, thrown by the Manhattan Institute, Mr.
Giuliani's old cheering section, marked a homecoming of sorts for the
61-year-old former Mayor. During the last several months, he has spent
a lot of time under the radar and below the Mason-Dixon Line, quietly
building coalitions with conservative Republicans as he prepares for a
potential 2008 Presidential bid.

Despite Mr. Giuliani's absence from the national stage, Tuesday
night's hobnobbing with Tom Wolfe, David Brooks and Mortimer Zuckerman
served as a reminder that the former Mayor is a genuine celebrity. He
enjoys enormous national name recognition and is widely seen as a
strong leader because of the resolve he showed during the Sept. 11
attacks.

But there is also a serious question of how long Mr. Giuliani can
remain at the top of national Republican polls (along with his friend,
Senator John McCain) while holding starkly unconservative positions on
abortion and gay rights. Moderation may work here in New York, but it
doesn't necessarily fly in the red states.

Perhaps for that reason, Mr. Giuliani has been skipping straw polls
and lying low to keep those issues—plus his two divorces—buried below
the headlines.

But some Republican strategists see in Mr. Giuliani's recent and
conspicuous support of conservative candidates an effort to quell
opposition from the Republican right wing should he eventually run.

"It gives him an opportunity to campaign for candidates and neutralize
the opposition," said Arnold Steinberg, a Republican strategist.
"Because there will be people who may not be for him, but they won't
be passionately against him."

And so Mr. Giuliani has dropped in on the Global Pastors of Florida,
campaigned with pro-life Senator Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, and
signed on for a fund-raiser for Ralph Reed, the co-founder of the
Christian Coalition and a candidate for lieutenant governor in
Georgia. This weekend, he is holding a cocktail party for a more
like-minded Republican, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California.

The busy schedule also allows Mr. Giuliani to stay in the thick of
Presidential politics without overexposing himself in the national
limelight. By conquering new constituencies with tough talk about
national security, Mr. Giuliani is showing conservative America that
he is a candidate they can live with, if not love. And that could just
be enough if the Republican Party needs a New Yorker to stand up to
Mr. Giuliani's old foe, Senator Hillary Clinton, in a general
election.

And so Mr. Giuliani is dusting off some old Hillary barbs.

"We're both Yankee fans," Mr. Giuliani said of Mrs. Clinton while
campaigning this month with Senator Santorum in the home state of the
Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates. "I became a Yankee
fan growing up in New York. She became a Yankee fan growing up in
Chicago."

But Anthony V. Carbonetti, a top executive at Giuliani Partners, a
consulting firm, and a close advisor to Mr. Giuliani, warned that it
was too early to determine who would stand "at the other end of the
ring," meaning that it is unclear who will emerge as the Democratic
Party's nominee. He also emphasized that Mr. Giuliani hasn't decided
whether to run or not. He added, however, that if Mr. Giuliani does
run, he would find common ground with many in the Republican Party.

"If he decided to go forward, you get more into the record and the
accomplishments in New York," said Mr. Carbonetti, referring to the
historic decreases in crime and in welfare cases during Mr. Giuliani's
tenure as Mayor. "I would count on those accomplishments in any
Republican primary."

Still, to Republican candidates running in this year's midterm
election, Mr. Giuliani's appeal is based on Sept. 11. On April 6, Mr.
Giuliani reinforced that image with an appearance at the sentencing
trial of Zacarias Moussaoui, and the large majority of his nearly 150
talks in the last two years have addressed national security.

"He has been very active, but not on the typical dog-and-pony shows.
He doesn't do the straw polls in Memphis or the breakfast at the
Chamber of Commerce in New Hampshire," said Lee Miringoff, director of
the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Part of his mystique is that
he's out there as an unknown quantity. And I think he wants to keep
that as long as possible."

That said, Mr. Giuliani is increasing his visibility as the midterm
elections loom, and Mr. Carbonetti said he is "committed to
campaigning for and raising money for Republican candidates."
Republicans are desperately in need of someone who can help get voters
excited, and Mr. Giuliani can pack them in like few others.

Bound for Iowa

"It's an election year, and he is coming out here to help our
candidates, looking to get Republicans in Congress," said Sarah
Sauber, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Republican Party. On May 1, Mr.
Giuliani is scheduled to speak at a "Get Motivated" seminar in Iowa
that is expected to draw nearly 20,000 to the Wells Fargo Arena. He
will also make appearances at fund-raisers for Representative Jim
Nussle, a candidate for Governor, and Jeff Lamberti, a candidate for
Congress. The Iowa caucuses, of course, are the first important event
in the Presidential primary season.

A day after that, Mr. Giuliani goes to Washington, as the featured
guest at a fund-raiser for the National Republican Senatorial
Committee. According to the committee's spokesman, Brian Nick, Mr.
Giuliani is still a major draw and a "tremendous asset" for
Republicans. Mr. Nick said the former Mayor generates large amounts of
contributions that "will directly help candidates around the country."

Mr. Giuliani is also doing well for himself, thanks to lucrative
speaking engagements and the business of his Giuliani Partners
consulting firm. In 2005, he was named as a partner to the
Houston-based law firm Bracewell & Giuliani, which also helped build
connections in the South.

"He certainly has star power down here," said Jay W. Ragley, political
director of the Republican Party of South Carolina. Mr. Ragley said
that when the time came, voters would have to balance Mr. Giuliani's
less-than-conservative stance on social issues with his leadership
qualities, but added that in the meantime, "I think most Republican
people want to see him and be near him."

That sentiment was echoed around the country.

"When it comes to talking to folks about the importance of President
Bush's global war on terror," said Jeff Sadosky, a spokesman for the
Republican Party of Florida, "folks nationwide look to Rudy Giuliani."

As Mr. Giuliani builds a bank of favors to potentially cash in on
without suffering the scrutiny of an official Presidential bid, he
also has the luxury of keeping his options open. His flexibility can
prove maddening to political Sibyls.

"It's a popular parlor game in Washington, D.C., to handicap Rudy
Giuliani's potential path to a Presidential bid," said Nelson
Warfield, a Republican strategist who is dubious of Mr. Giuliani's
chances. "I think he has no shot in the South once people find out
about the Harvey Milk High School for gay teenagers [which was
expanded in 2001, during the Mayor's last year in office], and the
panoply of liberal and progressive issues that he has to explain."

Indeed, evangelist leader Jerry Falwell articulated such opposition
recently when he told CNN: "As conservative Christians who take the
Bible seriously, we have probably irreconcilable differences on life
and family and that kind of thing. I'll never speak an ill word about
[Mr. Giuliani], because he means so much to America. But I couldn't
support him for President."

Unless, perhaps, if Mr. Giuliani emerges as the lesser of two evils.

Mrs. Clinton, who already has raised more than $30 million for her
Senate re-election this year and is widely believed to be preparing
for a run for President, turns out to be Mr. Giuliani's best friend
when it comes to his own Presidential ambitions, according to many
Republican strategists. The prospect of a Hillary Presidency could
distract Southern conservatives from Mr. Giuliani's more liberal
social positions.

"They might fear her so much that they would embrace him," said Mr. Steinberg.

A combination of Mr. Giuliani's fame and Mrs. Clinton as an opponent
also gives him an edge when it comes to fund-raising.

"Seeing the success he has in raising money for other people, I'm
confident he would be successful," said Mr. Carbonetti, who said he
speaks regularly with Karl Rove, the President's deputy chief of staff
responsible for politics, and Ken Mehlman, the chairman of the
Republican National Committee. Political observers also think that a
Hillary candidacy opens up opportunities for Mr. Giuliani, even if he
doesn't make it through the primary. If a Republican candidate with
more traditionally conservative values on social issues ends up facing
Mrs. Clinton, there are few more attractive choices for Vice President
than Mr. Giuliani.

"Everybody looks for a base to run from," said Rick Wiley, executive
director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. "Obviously, he would
really stymie her position to run up the score in New York. She would
have to look elsewhere to pick up those electoral votes."

Whatever the calculus turns out to be, Mr. Giuliani is causing plenty
of chin-scratching and anguish for politicians and analysts around the
country.

"He is an interesting candidate, because he is so strong in some areas
that conservatives are willing to overlook some of their differences
with him," said Republican pollster David Winston. "Making a decision
to run for President is not like any other. I think he is going
through a process of deciding what he is going to do."